“营改增”的减税效应——基于DSGE模型的分析

在新凯恩斯的分析框架下,根据中国经济的实际发展情况,构建了包括家庭、中间品厂商、最终品厂商、中央银行以及财政部门在内的动态随机一般均衡（DSGE）模型,评估了“营改增”的减税效应。对“营改增”减税效应的评估从两个维度进行：首先,把流转税领域税负减轻作为一个外生冲击,分析了社会总产出、消费水平、政府支出、劳动水平、工资水平、投资和资本存量等宏观经济变量的变动趋势;其次,构建了“营改增”前后两个不同的政策环境,并模拟了投资下降的经济下行冲击,对比分析了减税前后总产出对外生冲击的反应程度。研究发现：“营改增”虽然降低了政府部门的税收收入,但其减税效应能促进产出和消费的增加,激发整个经济的增长潜力;目前的改革力度在应对经济下行压力时尚没有发挥出预期的效果。     

Mandatory and Voluntary Disclosures: Dynamic Interactions

Firms sometimes obtain soft private information about growth prospects along with hard information about current or past performance. In this environment, we find that optimizing disclosures over multiple periods yields nonlinear stock price reactions following both voluntary and mandatory disclosures. Further, we derive several predictions about distinct short‐run and long‐run effects of disclosures and nondisclosures on security prices. Under specified conditions, when the volatility of the firm's earnings increases, the average contemporaneous and prospective post‐mandatory‐disclosure market premia (for voluntary disclosures over nondisclosures) rise, while farther‐in‐future market discounts (for such voluntary disclosures) also become larger. Our analysis moreover predicts that both the disclosure probability and the information content of nondisclosures can increase in the persistence of earnings.     

产权性质、客户集中度与营运资金动态调整

以2007-2015年我国 A股上市公司为样本,从动态的角度实证研究客户集中度对营运资金管理活动的影响,并考察不同产权性质下影响的差异性.研究结果表明:我国上市公司营运资金存在着目标值,客户集中度是影响企业目标营运资金需求的一个重要因素,并对企业营运资金的偏离程度和调整速度有着显著的影响.具体而言,客户集中度越高,其实际营运资金偏离目标水平的程度越大,且向目标营运资金水平调整的速度也越快;进一步研究发现,客户集中度对营运资金动态调整的影响在不同产权性质下存在着异质性,相对国有企业而言,客户集中度对营运资金偏离程度及调整速度的影响在非国有企业较为显著.     

The Relationship Between HR Capabilities and Quality of Patient Care: The Mediating Role of Proactive Work Behaviors

Based on theoretical frameworks of resource‐based theory, dynamic capabilities, and behavioral perspective on human resource management, we developed a multidimensional construct of human resource (HR) capabilities and tested its relationship with quality of patient care using a national sample of U.S. hospitals. The data on HR capabilities were collected from senior managers (421 individuals nested in 279 hospitals) representing both the administrative and clinical sides of the hospitals. The data on quality of patient care were gathered from two unique sources—patients of 207 hospitals who reported the data via the hospital Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems Survey, and 421 senior managers of 279 hospitals. Our analyses using structural equation modeling suggests that the positive relationship of HR capabilities with quality of patient care is mediated by proactive behaviors of health care workers. Implications of the study findings for research and practice are discussed. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Why doesn’t downsizing deliver? A multi-level model integrating downsizing,social capital,dynamic capabilities,and firm performance

Firms downsize to improve their bottom line results often in reactive response to negative external shocks, such as economic downturns, but even in proactive efforts to enhance organizational performance when they are financially ‘healthy’, such as restructuring. Research reveals, however, that not only does downsizing generally fail to improve a firm’s financial performance, but that it may even lead to reduced financial performance. To investigate this puzzling outcome, we build on previous research and integrate the concepts of downsizing, social capital, dynamic capabilities and performance in a multi-level model as well as discuss how social capital mediates the relationship between downsizing and dynamic capabilities. Thereafter, we develop (a) four propositions to elucidate how changes to the structural dimension of social capital due to downsizing, i.e. the removal of three key social network positions and changes to the firm’s network structure, negatively mediate the relationship between downsizing and a firm’s dynamic capabilities, and (b) two propositions incorporating internal (knowledge intensity) and external (institutional pressures) contextual variables in our model. We conclude by discussing how our research contributes to the downsizing and SHRM literature as well as the resource-based view and social capital literature before providing suggestions for future research and practitioners.     

在动态供应链重构中应用数据挖掘识别企业模式

提出了从各种渠道的数据信息中用数据挖掘识别企业模式的方法。对适用于动态供应链合作伙伴模式识别的特征属性、数据转换和径向基函数神经网络方法进行了较详细的分析,并给出了一个利用数据挖掘方法选择供应商的仿真案例。     

基于OGSA的物流信息动态组网和资源共享方法

基于OGSA（开放网格服务体系结构）模型的思想，定义了物流信息网络的概念，提出了一个基于OGSA的动态组网的物流信息网络模型。随后在网络的逻辑模型基础上探讨了物流信息网络动态组网、协同服务的实现步骤。并进一步对物流信息两络实现的关键技术如中间件技术、安全技术进行了阐述。     

供应链的进入与退出机制分析

首先对供应链网络的核心企业进行界定，然后根据产品的生命周期理论对供应链的进入机制进行了深入了分析，同时运用经济学原理和博弈论分析了供应链的退出机理，最后运用系统动力学对供应链的进入和退出机制进行了动态平衡分析。     

基于知识创造的企业持续成长

知识是企业成长的动力,知识的积累与增长决定了企业的竞争力。企业不仅交流、吸收知识,更重要的是在不断的知识转换中整合、重构知识,形成企业持续创新能力与竞争优势。因此企业应培养知识吸收、知识创造能力,进而保持动态核心竞争力,促进企业持续成长。     

基于动态规划的原油进口采购价格研究

随着我国经济的快速发展,国内生产的石油已不能满足经济发展的需要,进口原油量逐年增加,国际油价也一路高升,且我国原油进口方式不合理,存在一定的"买涨不买跌"现象。本文利用动态规划模型,根据实时价格数据确定采购价格,通过对采购价格选择的优化,节约进口采购成本。实证研究结果表明,本文方法具有一定优越性。